Insights & Research
A Complete Guide to the Statute, the Guidance, the No-Action Letters, and the Historical Precedents That Define Where Event Contracts Stand in American Law By Kale Pasch, CFA, JD June 2026 petr sidorov on Unsplash Abstra
Why Market Makers Cannot Hedge Event Contracts — and How an Options Layer, Hiding in Plain Sight Inside Today’s Scalar Markets, Would Finally Let Them, for Both Expiring and Perpetual Contracts By Kale Pasch, CFA, JD Jun
How Removing Expiry from Prediction Markets Creates a New Derivative Class — and Why the Funding Rate Is the Missing Piece By Kale Pasch, CFA, JD June 2026 Ashkan Forouzani on Unsplash Abstract This paper introduces the
How Sweepstakes Became America’s Shadow Casino Industry — and Why the States Are Finally Shutting It Down By Kale Pasch, CFA, JD June 2026 Nick Fewings on Unsplash Abstract On December 29, 2025, Tennessee Attorney Genera
How Stablecoin Yield Becomes the Airline Miles of Money — and Why the Line Between Rewards and Interest Decides Everything By Kale Pasch, CFA, JD June 2026 PiggyBank on Unsplash Abstract Stablecoin issuers earn billions
How Prediction Markets Are Infiltrating the Casino Floor — and Why the Entire American Gaming Regulatory Architecture Is Unprepared By Kale Pasch, June 2026 Kvnga on Unsplash Abstract On the evening of February 11, 2024,
The Hidden Fee That Blockchain Validators Extract from Every On-Chain Trade By Kale Pasch, CFA, JD June 2026 Señor Ashraf on Unsplash Abstract This paper examines Maximal Extractable Value (MEV) as a structural tax embed
The Most Important Price in Crypto That Regulators Have Barely Begun to Regulate By Kale Pasch, CFA, JD May 2026 Viktor Nikolaienko on Unsplash Abstract On the evening of March 12, 2020 — the night the crypto markets wou
The Economics and Profit Models of Stablecoin Issuance in America By Kale Pasch, CFA, JD May 2026 engin akyurt on Unsplash Abstract This article examines the economics and profit models of stablecoin issuance in the Unit
How Promotional Lotteries Became America’s Largest Unregulated Gambling Market — and How Crypto Is Blowing the Doors Off By Kale Pasch, May 2026 Meghan Hessler on Unsplash Abstract In October 2025, McDonald’s brought bac
The Liquidity Illusion — Part III of V
The Liquidity Illusion — Part II of V
The Liquidity Illusion — Part I of V
The House Always Wins — Part III of V
The House Always Wins — Part II of V
Part I of V: The Architecture of Digital Chance
Part I of The Valve Papers: A History of In-Game Economies, Loot Boxes, and the Monetization of Chance
What the Economists Got Right, What the Casinos Got Wrong, and Why the Answer May Be Both
Macro Contracts Are Derivatives. Micro Contracts Are Gambling. The Hard Question Is What Happens in Between.
What Every Court, Regulator, and Lobbyist Is Saying About Prediction Markets—and What the Historical Record Actually Supports
What the Nineteenth Century Can Teach Us About Prediction Markets, Retail Derivatives, and the CFTC’s Accidental Jurisdiction over American Gambling
What Every Dollar Wagered on a Prediction Market Costs the States That Will Never See It
What Happened Every Time a Nation Opened the Casino Door—From London’s Betting Shops to Australia’s Pokies to America’s Black Friday
From Colonial Lotteries to Sweepstakes Casinos: How America Built—and Rebuilt—Its Gambling Architecture, One Moral Panic at a Time
Ten Solutions for the Interest Question, the Market Structure Impasse, and the Path Forward
Crypto Exchanges as Unregulated Banking Entities, and the Distinction Between Stablecoins and Money Market Funds
The Free Banking Era, the National Banking Era, and the Echoes That Will Not Quiet
SEC Guidance, Global Approaches, and the Emerging Cartography of Stablecoin Governance
A Critical Examination of the GENIUS Act and the Return of Private Money
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Founder commentary on prediction-market OTC exchanges, perpetual event contracts and derivatives regulation, published as it is written.